Rent or buy

What does each cost over the years you would stay?

A home priced at the typical price of recorded completed sales , rented at the typical new-let rent on record , bought with the down payment the Central Bank rules allow. Drag the price scenario and what your cash would earn instead; the net cost of each path, and the year the two cross, are worked out again as you do.

Jumeirah Village Circle(Land Department area: Al Barsha South Fourth)·Apartment·1 bed

Prices a year — your scenario+0.0%Ticks are what happened, not a forecast: all ready homes here per sqft, not this size — a shift in the typical price of what sold, not a return any home earned. Last three years +8.6% a year (+28%, Jul 2023–Sep 2023 → Jul 2026–Sep 2026, 979 / 1,166 sales). Its worst three years on record, 2011–2025: -11.1% a year (-30%, 2017 → 2020, 780 / 791 sales).What the upfront cash earns if you rent, a year+4.0%A scenario, not a rate anyone offers. It starts at the loan rate (4.00%), so the cash a buyer puts down is credited the same rate a buyer pays to borrow; 0% is the cash sitting idle. A higher figure lowers renting's net cost, a lower one raises it.

Net cost after 10 years · Jumeirah Village Circle · at +0.0% a year on the home, +4.0% on the cash

Buying

AED 492.66K

paid out, less the equity held at year 10

Renting

AED 590K

rent paid, less what the kept cash grew by

The down payment and every fee — AED 270.7K here — is what a renter keeps and a buyer spends on day one.

Buying costs less than renting from year 6 through year 10.

Month to month at the start: AED 4,223 on the mortgage plus AED 1,036 in service charge against AED 6,000 in rent.

Renting's net cost less buying's, after 10 years, across price scenarios

-10% a year0%+10% a year

At +0.0% a year: buying costs AED 97.34K less by year 10. Solid, above the line: buying cost less by the end. Outlined, below: renting cost less. Dashed line: where the two meet.

The two cost the same over 10 years if prices move -1.0% a year. Over 5 / 10 / 15 / 20 years the two meet at +0.0% / -1.0% / -1.6% / -2.1% a year. Ready homes here moved about +8.6% a year from Jul 2023–Sep 2023 to Jul 2026–Sep 2026 and -11.1% a year in their worst three years on record (2017 to 2020, of 2011–2025) — what happened, not a forecast.

Assumptions20% down · 4.00% · 25y term · 10y stay · price AED 1M · rent AED 72K a year · service AED 12.44K · exit 2%

Down payment, % of price20% is the smallest the Central Bank rules allow an expatriate on a first home at this price, as we read them (Circular 31/2013, amended 2020); 100% is buying outright. Banks set their own limits.Loan rate, % a yearan assumption you can change, not a rate any bank offers

Years you would stay

Term

Pricetypical completed-home sale price of this size, Oct 2025 – Sep 2026 · 2,412 salesRent a yeartypical new-let rent of this size, Oct 2025 – Sep 2026 · 10,060 new letsService charge a yearmiddle of the owners' association budgets across 76 buildings here, on record for 2019–2026 (55 for 2026), AED 15.4/sqft × 808 sqft, the typical size of those completed-home sales (Oct 2025 – Sep 2026 · 2,412); charges have risen since and this is held flatRent change, % a yearheld at today's typical new-let rent by default; a sitting tenant's renewal is capped under Decree 43 of 2013 and lags new lets, so a rising figure here is a scenarioAgency on sale, %taken off the home's value at the end of the stay, on the buying side

Not counted, and every one of them a cost of owning: the month-to-month difference between the two paths' outgoings (whichever path pays less each month could invest the difference), maintenance, insurance a lender requires, a rate reset after a fixed period, early-settlement charges. The buying side is understated by them.

Ledger · where the two net costs come from, at year 10

Buying
Down payment20% of AED 1M: AED 200,000
Fees on day oneDLD transfer 4% (DLD) · agency 2% (agent) · trustee AED 4,200 typical (trustee office) · NOC AED 1,500 typical (developer) · registration 0.25% of the loan (DLD) · valuation AED 3,000 typical (bank): AED 70,700
Mortgage payments over 10 yearsAED 4,223 a month on a AED 800K loan: AED 506,723
Service charge over 10 yearsheld flat: AED 124,360
Less: home value at year 10at +0.0% a year — your scenario: − AED 1,000,000
Plus: agency on sale: AED 20,000
Plus: loan still owed: AED 570,875
Net cost of buying: AED 492,659

Renting
Rent over 10 yearsAED 6,000 a month, held flat: AED 720,000
Less: growth on the cash keptAED 270.7K — the down payment and fees a buyer spends — at +4.0% a year: − AED 130,002
Net cost of renting: AED 589,998

Year by year

Year	Net cost, buying	Net cost, renting
1	AED 134,790	AED 61,172
2	AED 178,105	AED 121,911
3	AED 220,613	AED 182,199
4	AED 262,283	AED 242,019
5	AED 303,079	AED 301,352
6	AED 342,965	AED 360,178
7	AED 381,906	AED 418,477
8	AED 419,862	AED 476,228
9	AED 456,794	AED 533,409
10	AED 492,659	AED 589,998

Bold rows: years in which buying's net cost is at or below renting's.

A scenario worked out from typical recorded prices and rents and the figures you set. Not a quote, an offer of credit, a valuation of any home, or advice; Keyva is not a bank, broker or adviser and is not affiliated with DLD, RERA or the Central Bank. As of 11 October 2026. Where the numbers come from.

Dubai Land Department · recorded sales Sales on record with the Land Department · typical prices, not estimates. Half of the sales were above a typical price, half below. File dated 8 Oct 2026 · synced 8 Oct 2026.

Dubai Land Department · rent contracts Ejari (Dubai's rent registration system) contracts · agreed rents, not advertised ones. File dated 10 Oct 2026 · synced 11 Oct 2026.

The other halves of the same question

Buying with cash or with a loan — what each returns on the money put in, for the same home and area.
Renewal rents against new-let rents — the rent here is a new let; a sitting tenant's renewal is capped, and that page measures what it pays against one.
What a bank may lend — the down payment above is the rules' minimum, not an offer.